A question, and an update :)

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By Oliver AKA The Admin on 31 comments
in Categories: Just Talking

Hello everyone :)

I’ve got one update to announce, and a question to ask…

First, the question. (Update : read the comments, it’s interesting !)

I’m trying to find a survey or website covering the world resources, known and estimated, for the minerals, ores, rare earth elements used in the industry… In other words, for the non-renewable raw materials our civilization uses at lightning speed.

I want to know how long we can still consume resources at the current speed we’re using them, and how many years of use we still have in stock, according to the volumes already known to exist, and estimated to be bound to be found. The data exists, but I’m not sure a public synthesis exists.

For instance, last year, I read we had, at 2008’s consumption rate, for 75 years of uranium resources known as being available for extraction, and a total of 3 times more estimated to be possible to dig out, however the world consumption was bound to be multiplied by 4 in the medium term, an idea that isn’t exceptionally good news if you dream to see Civilization (with a capital letter C) last a little more after the peak oil (currently going on, sigh).
(And if the prospect of a peak oil + a medium term uranium shortage + rare earths shortage isn’t ruining your mood, please google the name “Dmitry Orlov”, or ask google how the working population // retired people ratio is evolving in China)
(update : if you’re brooding now, OK : I apologize, read this and stop whining)

I know some common materials could be used for thousands of years (coal), whereas some others wouldn’t last two more centuries in the best case and with fingers crossed.
Would you know of a website or a public study covering this subject ? So far, the best I could find were disputed estimations for just one or two ores/resources, or the peak oil documents available for everyone even if nobody gives a fuck in the public opinion, never more -_-

Second, the update.

I have yet to understand why, but the pictures weren’t correctly numbered in my last Yuki Seto share, a repack of the uncensored versions of Maybe I’m A Beast + Maybe You’re A Beast + Princess And The Crow.
Starting from scratch, I fixed it, and, if you care to know, the Zip I’m now sharing is correct, at last. You can find this pack on this page.
I’m sorry for the trouble, so as a compensation, if you need to download it again, here’s a link less annoying than my usual links : a megaupload mirror.

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Hitshitfan
Hitshitfan
13 years ago

So basically you want to know how much the US and China are fucking up the world? A lot.

Hitshitfan
Hitshitfan
13 years ago

About 300 years if we don't find a more efficient way to travel in space and take resources from other planets, ultimately running into another species and starting a war.

Nyouwt
Nyouwt
13 years ago

Salut Oliver, tu peux essayer http://www.worldometers.info/ . Il n'y a pas exactement tout ce que tu veux mais c'est assez éloquent comme site pour montrer à quelle vitesse folle notre monde va.

En espérant que cela puisse t'aider =)

Un grand fan de ton site, amicalement. Nyouwt

Pink
Pink
13 years ago

Depending on if you believe in the recent studies that have been published within the last 5 years or so. Like one of the studies or estimates is that oil all known and expected finds of oil will run out around 2040. But the bigger problem is around 2050, which are the studies that I mentioned that happened basically or at least came out within the last 5 years and stuff. Stating that around 2050 basically the entire food chain will collapse as we will over tax the Earth which we are doing now like overproduced by 20% we believe it was with what the earth can handle and stuff. But by 2050 it will be like overproduced like 200% or something like that. but the problem is or at least what we have read is that around 2050 the life in the seas will collapse due to pollution and overfishing, etc…, agriculture will fail due to over-farming and such. Not to mention we are at the point of non-return if we do not change the way we live and waste the resources that we have, and do it quickly as the damage we have done to the world already will make the changes in the environment permanent and stuff.

Hitshitfan
Hitshitfan
13 years ago

Honestly, I've already given up on us.

Hitshitfan
Hitshitfan
13 years ago
Reply to  Pink

That was a depressing read

Andate
Andate
13 years ago
Allen75
Allen75
13 years ago

Try asking Wolfram Alpha.

Kalle
Kalle
13 years ago

If you already haven't tried, why don't you go on 'Yahoo! Answers'? I see there many questions like yours asked and answered all the time.

lodestone
lodestone
13 years ago

There are several trends which the listed articles do not question. While you have mentioned limited supply and economies based on those supply and reflect GDP. They haven’t answered the amusing question about GDP itself in relation to economy.

GDP growth is the foremost import of Keynesian theory. Without it, all theories and practice today do not function. If you look at consumption as a means to growth, then Keynesian theories and practices are endangered by their limited resource because they have a dead end to growth. If you will, the practice of ‘propping up industry’ and loans are based on unending growth which needs to be limitless. The second it is limited, the dominoes will fall without fail so long as every means of support is based on unlimited growth.

Don’t misunderstand, Keynesian theory is not wrong. It was based on unlimited growth. The base never changed, the reality of the base has.

alex
alex
13 years ago
Reply to  lodestone

yes exactly.

alex
alex
13 years ago

if you're talking about energy in general, then it's practically limitless. wind, tidal, solar, and geothermal power are the key renewable energy sources that governments refuse to develop, all because oil and coal and natural gas are much better for business. hydroelectric power is sadly too destructive to justify the considerable amount of renewable energy it can produce (flooding vast tracks of perfectly productive agricultural land in china [3 gorges dam], among other places, plus it interferes with the natural flooding cycles of rivers which replenish the nutrients in farmlands/forests [see aswan dam and its effects on productivity along the nile]).

as for raw materials, as long as our socio-economic system is one which forces everyone to generate PROFIT to survive, there will always be an exponential trend of consumption as well as the continued growth of rich and poor (see modern money mechanics, published by us fed reserve to understand how the pursuit of profit is perpetuated). naturally, a perpetual increase in the creation/consumption of products (most of which you don't even need to live in relative comfort) will necessitate a perpetual increase in the extraction of resources.

of course, the world wasn't always this way (see various pre-modern ways of life).

Raha
Raha
13 years ago

Earth is a giant ball of metals, essentially. A few of them are rare, and even for that reason we don't really rely on them in any important way. Most of these metals, even after use, can be comparatively easily recycled and used again. Since the most easily accessible sites have been exhausted for some minerals, companies already started tapping into dump sites etc. for metal. But we surely have more metals in reach if we dig as deep as possible with current technology, never mind how much we can reach if we dug even deeper.

Limited resources are more the organic substances, like Oil. That one will eventually run out. Known reserves will last around 54 years according to Wikipedia, but we have more probable and unconventional oil sources to use. We can also produce more oil through biomass (which is what the oil in the ground is in the first place – old biomass). However this is more expensive and probably will more result in a transition to nuclear powers, including earth warmth and solar energy, which are essentially unlimited and quite risk-free even if everyone on earth consumed 10x as much as an US American at the current consumption levels. A very small fraction of the total sun power that reaches earth (which in itself is less than a billionth of what the sun actually emits, never mind the amount the atmosphere reflects) is enough for that. Likewise is a tiny, tiny sun on earth (fusion/fission) if we can find a way to store or transport the energy.

I find the question is more what the environmental impact of using one or the other resource will be, besides maybe the amount of work needed to tap into either (we surely are using the "easiest" sources right now – but many of the others aren't terrible either). Even if you don't count the largely popular issue of global warming, the amount of land, air, and sea we've already polluted and somehow made less useful / less liveable is saddening.

However, I can name one resource that is very finite: Helium. That's one of the few resources we cannot reclaim, as it actually is only very slowly being generated from nuclear reactions/decay and it doesn't only dissipate, it even ESCAPES EARTH'S GRAVITY WELL if released. It is the only resource that is very very finite with no credible way to even recycle it with some effort, or produce more of it (nuclear fusion would produce some minuscule amounts – but with the ENORMOUS amounts of energy also released in that process, we can't hope to accumulate enough of it – we will be limited to the amount earth has generated over millions of years unless we find a different way to rearrange atoms or quarks into helium or somehow dive into the sun and get it out of there…)

Flava
13 years ago

I remember watching a TED talks about the future of energy, not sure if you've seen it, think it will kinda answer your question, it's pretty interesting and the guy explains it really well. Skip into 6 or 7 minutes for his data on the current levels of fuel left in the world. But I recommend watching it all
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6BLFdBfgfU

Also I remember watching another video, can't find it, but it was basically about how the raw material companies completely lie and fabricate the data about what fuel is left.

entropy13
13 years ago

I got this:
http://yfrog.com/2o1275136470107g

Hope it helps.

Daniel
Daniel
13 years ago

These guys all made very good points, I couldn't have worded much better. The general population has become like a fat cow ready for slaughter, thanks in part to those in power being so damned greedy. The media can't be trusted because they have been bought and the average public unfortunately doesn't give a fuck, they're too busy playing with their new cell phones. Seriously, we all need to open our eyes, and think about just how much we really need to make our lives better. The rich need to realize we all live on the same planet and money won't mean a damn thing when the world ends.

Zero the Hero
Zero the Hero
13 years ago

You know what, I think that the big business men don't care when the non-renewable resources run out because they have enough to last them for what ever they want… and as for the rest of us they don't give a damn. Actually that game that came out a little while back called Front Lines: Fuel of War was pretty close to what I think would happen. The civilians A.K.A. us after becoming "addicted" (for lack of a better word) to having energy for everything we do in day to day life were forced to live without it all the sudden would go crazy, riot, loot, and/or join the military so they could have electricity. And as for the governments faced with a sudden and huge jump in their armed forces decided that instead of trying to find or build resources it would be easier to just go to war with other countries, get rid of some excesses soldiers, and save who knows how much money because as we all know to the government just what is a 100 to 500 soldiers compared to the millions they would spend to build a solar power-plant or a geothermal plant. That is the closest thing to what I think would happen. I mean most of us (everyone in general anywhere) just can't live without electricity and lets face it if the government had to pull the power tomorrow we would be able to hold together at first but just think to your selves for a second here. After what 1, 2, maybe 3 years if you knew that if you joined the military you would get to use electricity again is anyone who can honestly say you wouldn't join. And to the government like I said earlier which is cheaper get rid of a couple mouths to feed or spend millions. No one may want to admit but we all know the choice the government would make.
Well any way I don't think we have to worry about when as much as to what's going to happen after we run out. That's my thoughts any way… hope you find them informative and made you think about it from a different perspective of not when but what will happen afterword.

Zero the Hero
Zero the Hero
13 years ago
Reply to  Zero the Hero

Feel free to delete if you think it's to far off your topic, but I felt like doing a "rave" (I think that's the word) today. Well anyways please tell what you thought about my "rave" or delete it if you don't like it. Just felt like talking from a different perspective.

Andate
Andate
13 years ago
Reply to  Zero the Hero

I don't think it would go quite that bad. While not having electricity would cause widespread rioting and problems at first, we DID survive thousands of years without it. Highly inustrialized countries like the U.S an the majority of Europe would adapt or fail. As for the 'third world'(most of South Africa, the Caribbean, south Asia) it would cause a bit of concern an momentary riots, but then life would continue as usual. As it is, many places still don't have electricity regularly and carry on fine.

It is the loss of other resources, like water and fertile land that would cause real problems.Countries have gone to war for both in the past an in this day and age, the wars would be particularly brutal…

ChRiAn
ChRiAn
13 years ago

http://www.usgs.gov is quite good for mineral survey, I also usedit for my college bachelor essay

fara
fara
13 years ago

How about Greenpeace? It's their job to know this kind of thing.
You could ask around on their SNS sites(twitter etc..)
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/

shamas
shamas
13 years ago

well, according to some controversial information, planet x aka nibiru of the ancient sumerians is around in the inner solar system already, and is causing increased rate of extreme weather, earthquakes, sinkholes, etc. here on earth due to wobbles. apparently the information is being covered up by the governments, so its tough to know whats actually going on. eventually it is supposed to cause a polar shift, that would reduce our civilization to level 1, once again. so perhaps these energy problems are not what we should be focussing on. well, i suppose we will see what happens.

Raha
Raha
13 years ago
Reply to  shamas

Other sources indicate that conspiracy theorists are the singular cause for global warming by their constant expulsion of methane from their heads (so called "brain farts") and the singlemost biggest threat to our world's supplies of tin, which they appear to make into hats…

Neither the maians nor the sumerians had much clue on how the world works in terms of maths or physics or any other science that would have allowed to make them such predictions. And in fact, they did not really. Granted, I did sense some sarcasm in your post, but some people are actually serious about this type of "information".

Raha
Raha
13 years ago
Flone
Flone
13 years ago

Puisque tu es français, le meilleur site à mes yeux sur le sujet est celui de Jean-Marc Jancovici : http://www.manicore.com

Et je sais de quoi je parle : je travaille dans le milieu. Jancovici a peut-être un trop grand franc parlé et une envie de laisser les scientifiques dicter leurs lois pour sauver le monde, mais en tous les cas il fait du bon travail de synthèse documentaire.

Je te conseille de lire un de ses livres, comme “Le Plein s’il vous plaît”. C’est abordable pour le quidam moyen, je te rassure.